Global Warming Science: www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming
Global Warming Acceleration
[last update: 2010/05/24]
Obama’s Science Advisor – John Holdren – stated: “Climate change is real. It's accelerating. It is caused in substantial part by human activity. It is dangerous. And it is getting more so.” [http://www.aip.org/fyi/2009/033.html]
Obama said: “international discussions have essentially taken place now for almost two decades, and we have very little to show for it other than an increased acceleration of the climate change phenomenon.” [http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-morning-plenary-session-united-nations-climate-change-conference]
Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC said: “climate change was happening more quickly than believed, also asserted that all evidence pointed to its acceleration” [http://beta.thehindu.com/news/international/article64458.ece]
Sea level has been rising at a steady rate since records began in the late 1800s – well before the CO2 era. Is it accelerating?
The following figure shows global cumulative sea level change for 1900 to 2002 [http://www.wamis.org/agm/meetings/rsama08/S304-Shum_Global_Sea_Level_Rise.pdf]. Since according to the IPCC, CO2-based warming has apparently only shown up since the 1970s, all of this sea level rise since prior to 1970 cannot be caused by anthropogenic CO2, and yet the trend has not increased.
Acceleration has been caused by selective trend calculation (i.e. cherry-picking). The following figure compares (left) the above sea level data (1.6 mm/yr) with (right) more recently reported rate of 3.1 mm/yr. By using a start year of 1993 – at the bottom of a dip in the trend, a spurious calculation of 3.1 is obtained. In reality the recent data is in line with the long-term trend – the “acceleration” is artificial.
Acceleration has also been produced through data adjustments. The following figure compares the sea level data through 2009 (from above-right – changed to the magenta line below) and the same data through 2005 from an older EPA report. The older data has more recently been adjusted downwards to artificially create an “acceleration” of sea level rise.
See: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_4CE_SeaLevel.htm for details.
The IPCC creates artificial acceleration by calculating short term linear trends within cyclical data. The following figure is Fig. FAQ 3.1 from Chapter 3 of the IPCC AR4 2007 report [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter3.pdf]
The report states “Note that for shorter recent periods, the slope is greater, indicating accelerated warming.”
What they are obfuscating is the variation in the actual data as well as the fact that the warming occurs on a 60-year cycle. The calculation of linear trends with disregard to the non-linear cyclical nature gives erroneous (or dishonest) results.
The following figure shows the HadCRU temperature data that went into developing the above graph, along with orange lines indicating the 60-year cycle. The red line on the figure below shows the 0.74 degrees per century (shown in purple above), while the green line shows the 1.28 degrees per century (shown in orange above). The linear warming trend shown when accounting for the cycle is actually about 0.3-0.4 degrees per century as shown by the blue line on the figure below based on the trend in the peaks of the 60-year cycle.
The warmest year globally was 1998 – since then there has been no warming. Again, no acceleration.
See: http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/SixtyYearCycle.htm for more details on the 60-year cycle.
NASA’s chief alarmist – James Hansen – is in charge of data manipulation. And “What James Hansen believes is that global warming is accelerating.” [http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/17/60minutes/main1415985.shtml] Hansen has reported global temperatures various times over the last three decades. He has produced a progressive reduction in the 1960s cooling to try to hide the 60-year cycle, as shown in the following figure comparing Hansen 2007 with Hansen 1987 and Hansen 1981:
He has also manipulated US temperatures. The following figure compares Hansen 2001 (red / blue) with Hansen 1999 (black), and highlighting some of the significant changes. Temperatures in the 1930s were reduced and temperatures in the 1990s were increased. Hansen creates artificial acceleration.
See: http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/Hansen_GlobalTemp.htm for more on Hansen’s manipulations.
The alarmists blame “climate change” on the burning of fossil fuels. Nature magazine says: “human activities are almost certainly the cause. That case is supported by multiple, robust lines of evidence, including several that are completely independent of the climate reconstructions debated in the [CRU] e-mails”. Unfortunately the only line of evidence that is ever cited is the output of climate models. “Denialists often maintain that these changes are just a symptom of natural climate variability. But when climate modellers test this assertion by running their simulations with greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide held fixed, the results bear little resemblance to the observed warming. The strong implication is that increased greenhouse-gas emissions have played an important part in recent warming, meaning that curbing the world's voracious appetite for carbon is essential”. (See: http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/NatureRag.htm) No real evidence – just defective models.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported in 2006: “Most people assume that global warming is caused by burning oil and gas. But in fact between 25 and 30 percent of the greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere each year – 1.6 billion tonnes – is caused by deforestation. … Delegates of the 46 developing countries present at the Rome workshop signalled their readiness to act on deforestation, 80 percent of which is due to increased farmland to feed growing populations. … But they also stressed that they needed financial help from the developed world to do the job.” [http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006/1000385/index.html]. (See: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/Deforestation.htm)
The U.S. can do nothing on its own to significantly reduce global CO2 emissions. The following figure from the Global Carbon Project compares CO2 emissions between developed and developing nations. The growth of emissions is in the developing nations is outpacing the emissions from developed nations and now exceeds that of the developed nations (acceleration of developing nations emissions – not developed nations). [http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/08/files/GCP2009_CarbonBudget2008.pdf]
Obama and his advisors think it is dangerous: "At a time of great fiscal challenges, this legislation is paid for by the polluters who currently emit the dangerous carbon emissions that contaminate the water we drink and pollute the air we breathe” (from “Obama urges Congress to move swiftly on climate change bill” [http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jun/23/obama-climate-change-congress]) (When he thinks it pollutes drinking water and implying pollution for breathing, you know he is ignorant of the science, and his advisor is giving him bad advice.)
The only thing accelerating is the artificial manipulation of data to justify spurious claims by the alarmists.
And when Obama and others want to impose societal regulations based on these false claims – that is dangerous.
In keeping with Obama’s desire for web sites to provide opposing views, I have added this section (in hopes of keeping the thought police at bay).
Cass Sustein – Obama’s Administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs stated: “sites of one point of view would agree to provide links to other sites … if we could get voluntary arrangements in that direction it would be great - and if we can’t get voluntary arrangements maybe congress should hold hearings about mandates.”
Obama said: “If you’re a fan of Glenn Beck … try reading a few columns on the Huffington Post website. It may make your blood boil… The practice of listening to opposing views is essential for effective citizenship.”
The Huffington Post says: “Global Warming: A localized pause and then the end of our civilization … if world population is only reduced by a billion, I will be amazed.” See: http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/HuffPoBlow.htm for more info as well as the link to Huffington Post.