Mauna Loa Data and Western US Precipitation Study Provide Evidence for Solar Causation in Global Warming

Alan Cheetham [2007/07/10]

A study by Charles A. Perry (Water Resources Division, U.S. Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas USA) “Solar-Irradiance Variations and Regional Precipitations in the Western United States”

[http://ks.water.usgs.gov/Kansas/waterdata/climate/homepage.ijc.html] provides correlations between the sun and localized climatic effects such as precipitation and stream flow. The following figure from their study shows the effects of solar irradiance on precipitation in Washington and Oregon. The graphs show solar irradiance lagged by four years, providing a strong correlation with precipitation. These correlations provide further evidence of a strong influence of solar input on climate.

Correlation Between Solar Irradiance and Precipitation in Coastal Washington and Oregon (from Perry cited above)

The IPCC says that global warming in recent decades is due to anthropogenic CO2. In the AR4 Scientific Basis report (2007) they provide the following trend of CO2 measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as representative of the earth, since CO2 dissipates relatively quickly to an even atmospheric distribution.

Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa (Figure 2.3 in the IPCC AR4)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division [http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/] provides data from a network of CO2 monitoring stations around the world (with data for Mauna Loa starting in 1970). Comparing the various CO2 trends available from the NOAA database shows a consistent trend in atmospheric CO2 rise around the world, substantiating the dissipation. The following figure compares the Mauna Loa CO2 with the South Pole CO2.

Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa (Red) and at South Pole (Blue) from the NOAA Database

However, the earth’s temperature trends vary greatly by region and do not show the consistency of the CO2 trends. In fact the temperature trend at Mauna Loa shows no correspondence with the CO2 trend. The following figure shows the Mauna Loa CO2 along with the temperature trend from the nearest station in the NASA GISS database (Hilo, Hawaii) [http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=425912850000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1], clearly illustrating the lack of correspondence between the two.

Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa with Temperature Trend from the NASA GISS Database for Hilo.

The following figure shows the solar irradiance since 1980 (From Figure 2.16 in the IPCC AR4 Scientific Basis report). The next figure combines the solar incidence lagged by 4 years (consistent with Perry’s study cited above) with the CO2 and temperature at Mauna Loa from the above figure. As can be seen, the solar irradiance provides a much better correlation with temperature than does the CO2.

Solar Irradiance 1980 – 2005 from IPCC AR4 Figure 2.16

Solar Irradiance (lagged by 4 years – green / magenta) with Mauna Loa CO2 (black) and Temperature (blue)