Global Warming Science - www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming
[last update: 2011/04/28]
A Record Number of Tornadoes Hit the Southeast US in April 2011
(A record since current counting methods began – i.e. the development of radar detection methods)
Alarmists say it is due to global warming:
NOAA Tornado Data
NOAA has reported the number of strong to violent (F3-F5) tornadoes each year in their annual climate summary report. The following graph is from 2008, showing a decline in strong tornadoes over the last 50 years.
But in 2009, under Obama’s administration, the method of reporting tornadoes in the annual report changed so that the situation could suit the administrations goals. The following figure is from the 2010 report showing the tornado count, rather than the number of strong to violent tornadoes.
The increasing tornado count is due to improved weather tracking technology. In the 1950s radar began to be used; then in the 1970s, Doppler radar improved the detection capabilities.
“"If you look at the past 60 years of data, the number of tornadoes is increasing significantly, but it's agreed upon by the tornado community that it's not a real increase," said Grady Dixon, assistant professor of meteorology and climatology at Mississippi State University. "It's having to do with better (weather tracking) technology, more population, the fact that the population is better educated and more aware. So we're seeing them more often," Dixon said. But he said it would be "a terrible mistake" to relate the up-tick to climate change. … However, the stronger-than-usual tornadoes affecting the southern states were actually predicted from examining the planet's climatological patterns, specifically those related to the La Nina phenomenon. "We knew it was going to be a big tornado year," he said. But the key to that tip-off was unrelated to climate change: "It is related to the natural fluctuations of the planet."”
“A top official at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) rejected claims by environmental activists that the
outbreak of tornadoes ravaging the American South is related to climate
change brought on by global warming. “There really is no scientific consensus or connection [between
global warming and tornadic activity] ….Jumping from a large-scale event like
global warming to relatively small-scale events like tornadoes is a huge leap
across a variety of scales.” Asked if climate change should be “acquitted” in
a jury trial where it stood charged with responsibility for tornadoes, Carbin
replied: “I would say that is the right verdict, yes.” Because there is no
direct connection as yet established between the two? “That’s correct,”
The Tornado F-scale:
The number of F0 tornadoes reported has increased greatly as monitoring technology and reporting has improved. The number of strong tornadoes (F2-F5) has not increased, since these have been more accurately counted all along since 1950.
From August 1977 New Scientist: “In the 1970s, many improvements have been made in the efficiency of the [tornado] watch and warning service. Many more spotters are now available”
The following figure shows the average spring temperature for the Southeast region of the US from NCDC (the states that Think Progress accuses of ignoring the science and ignoring the warnings). The area has had no warming. No relationship to tornadoes.
The following figure shows the number of tornado fatalities from the NOAA climate summary for 2008.
The year with the largest number of fatalities is 1974. This happens also to be the height of the global cooling scare. In the 1970s there were many media reports about the coming ice age – global cooling was occurring and society was encouraged to be fearful and to act to prevent it.
Time magazine, 24 June 1974:
Newsweek magazine, 28 April 1975:
The following figure shows tornado fatalities since 1875.
The following figure shows tornado fatalities normalized by population since 1875.
Relation to ENSO
The following figure shows compares the tornado fatalities shown above as representative of very strong tornadoes, with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI – from [http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/]).
It is clear that the years with violent tornadoes are years with extremes in the MEI – usually on the La Nina side of the ENSO. The tornadoes in 2011 also correspond to an extreme La Nina as indicated by the green circle above.
1999 study: “the findings show clear evidence of geographical shifts in tornado activity within the United States when comparing strong El Niño years to La Niña years,"”
As usual, the alarmists lie about climate / weather phenomena.