Global Warming Science: www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming
USA Today – Fake News on the 100th Meridian
[last update: 2018/04/18]
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The Scare
According to USA Today: “A boundary that divides the humid eastern U.S. and the dry western Plains appears to have shifted 140 miles to the east over the past century due to global warming, new research suggests. Scientists say it will almost certainly continue shifting in coming decades, expanding the arid climate of the western Plains into what we think of as the Midwest. The implications for farming could be huge Now, due to shifting patterns in precipitation, wind and temperature since the 1870s — due to man-made climate change — the boundary between the dry West and the wetter East has shifted to roughly 98 degrees west longitude, the 98th meridian” (bold added) .
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The Research
The USA Today article links to the study:
“Here, it is considered how this arid–humid divide will change in intensity and location during the current century under rising greenhouse gases…. The “effective 100th meridian” moves to the east as the century progresses.” https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/EI-D-17-0012.1
Also: “used the CMIP5 model ensemble to show that these changes combine to cause a quite alarming increase in aridity in the plains”
So USA Today fake news has misrepresented the research. The study is using models for predicting future movement of the arid/humid transition boundary to the east during the current century – but USA Today says it already “has shifted”. USA Today is confused by model projections, thinking it has already happened.
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The Data
NOAA provides time series graphing of historical data at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag
The following figures show the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PDHI) for climate divisions within the 100 to 98 meridian shift zone highlighted by USA Today. If the meridian has already shifted as USA Today claims, the PHDI would be decreasing, not increasing.
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The Conclusion
The historical drought data show that the USA Today article is fake news, incorrectly reporting the results of the paper they reference, as well as being completely wrong according to NOAA data. USA Today simply promotes incorrect alarmist nonsense. In addition, the referenced research based on models does not match the historical data.
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