Global Warming Science - www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming

Sea Level Rising!

[last update: 2009/11/14]

What’s up with seal level? Alarm! Alarm! It’s rising! 

But then there’s reality…

So many sound the alarm about sea level – why is reality ignored by these alarmists?

Tuvalu

Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth claimed that Pacific atolls had already had evacuated due to rising sea levels caused by anthropogenic global warming and that sea levels could rise by 20 feet “in the near future”. (Both “facts” were found to be false by a British judge [http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/law/article2633838.ece])

The tropical Pacific country of Tuvalu is the typical poster child for the alarmist scenario since the coral islands’ elevations are all below 15 feet elevation and stormy high tides regularly cause problems.

The following is from http://www.tuvaluislands.com/warming.htm

Then there’s reality. The following figure shows sea level data at Funafuti, Tuvalu to June 2009 (From Fig 11 in [http://www-cluster.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60102/IDO60102.2009_1.pdf]) The figure speaks for itself.

Tuvalu issued a postage stamp sheet in 2009 featuring the “First Family of the United States of America”. Included on the stamps are President Barack Obama, the First Lady Michelle Obama, daughters Malia & Sasha, and the First Portuguese Water Dog Bo. Tuvalu beat the Nobel prize givers to the ass-kissing podium. (Although Liberia was the first country to release an Obama stamp sheet, other countries have also – including Guinea, Tanzania, Palau and Sierra Leone.)

Australia

“The Australian”, Nov 14, 2009: “Almost 250,000 homes, now worth up to $63 billion, will be "at risk of inundation" by the end of the century, under "worst-case but plausible" predictions of rising sea levels. The study -- released ahead of the crucial Senate vote on Labor's emissions trading scheme -- modelled the effect of a 1.1m sea-level rise on cities and towns around Australia.”[http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/sea-levels-threaten-250000-homes/story-e6frg8gf-1225797562732]

Then there’s reality. The following figure shows sea level data at several locations around Australia to June 2009 (data from Fig. 10 in [http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60202/IDO60202.2009.pdf]). Sea level trends vary greatly around Australia. The effect of the 1997-98 El Nino is quite noticeable on the west and north shores of the country.

The prediction of a 1.1m rise by the end of the century does not seem reasonable. The following figure shows that rate of 11cm / decade (blue line) superimposed on the Port Kembla sea level data (although the figure only goes to 2050).

These modelers seem to represent a twisted view of the data:

The NOAA sea level database has a couple of longer-term stations in Australia (data from the PSMSL) as shown for Sydney in the following figure (plot from http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/index.shtml). Sydney’s historic rate since 1885 of about 0.6 mm / year is a far cry from the scary 11 mm / year the Australian government is touting.

Washington State, USA

Washington State Senator Maria Cantwell said: “Washington is projected to sustain sea level rises up to two feet by 2040” (See: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/WA_StateSenators.htm)

Then there’s reality. The following figure shows sea level data for the Pacific Northwest coast (sea level plots from NOAA http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/index.shtml)

The following figure illustrates sea level rise “up to two feet by 2040” at Astoria. The past rate of -0.31 mm per year (or essentially zero) would have to change to a rate of +2 mm / year over the next 30 years.

Science

Science should have some basis in reality – i.e. be based on observations. When the predictions don’t match the observations………..

See also: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_4CE_SeaLevel.htm for more info on sea level.