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Satellite Sea Level – 20 Years of Data – No Change in Rate

[last update: 2011/04/17]

Satellite Sea Level Data

Satellite sea level data exist for almost 20 years now. In that time the calculated rate of sea level rise has essentially been constant. The ups and downs within that time period correspond very well with the El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The following figure compares the satellite-based sea level data (from http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/LSA_SLR_timeseries_global.php) with the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI – from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/)

Sea Level Deceleration

Although the rate of sea level rise has been constant since the start of satellite data, Obama’s science advisor John Holdren sounds the alarm: “John Holdren told the BBC that the climate was changing much faster than predicted. … He added that if the current pace of change continued, a catastrophic sea level rise of 4m (13ft) this century was within the realm of possibility; much higher than previous forecasts.” [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/5303574.stm]

The current “pace of change” is 2.8 +/- 0.4 mm / year, which gives the additional rise of 10 inches by the end of the century. It seems that Holdren has a problem with arithmetic (or a problem with telling the truth).

But that was 2006. In 2009 Holdren said 6 ft – “White House science czar John Holdren told members of the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming that changes in global temperatures could mean a rise in sea levels of 6 feet or more in a century.”

[http://www.cnsnews.com/node/58370]

So in 3 years Holdren’s alarm has been cut in half from 13 ft to 6 ft. At the same time that Holdren said 6 ft, NOAA’s Jane Lubchenco said “a rise in sea levels of up to 3.5 feet in this century” (Same reference as above).

The IPCC stated in the Third Assessment Report (2001) [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/425.htm]: “There is no evidence for any acceleration of sea level rise in data from the 20th century data … Mediterranean records show decelerations, and even decreases in sea level in the latter part of the 20th century”.

Since 2001, the satellite data show no change in the rate of sea level rise.

For more information on sea level: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_4CE_SeaLevel.htm