In 1988 NASA’s climate alarmist James Hansen provided temperature predictions based on climate models (results of which he presented to the US congress). He modeled three scenarios: A had an increasing rate of CO2 emissions, B had constant rate of CO2 of CO2 emissions, whereas scenario C had reduced CO2 emissions rate from 1988 levels into the future. (Hansen’s 1988 paper can be found at: http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/1988/Hansen_etal.html)
The following figure shows Hansen’s Figure 3 with satellite temperature data superimposed (from:
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2008/06/gret-moments-in.html). The Figure 3 caption also provides a brief explanation of the scenarios.
The following figures compare Hansen’s 1988 predictions with actual temperature data since then. The left-hand figure compares the NASA GISS global data (as compiled by Hansen), while the right-hand figure compares the satellite-based temperature data as processed by RSS. (Figures from Steve McIntyre [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3354] ). While actual atmospheric CO2 levels have increased since 1988, the fact that actual temperatures are similar to the reduced CO2 models implies a problem with the models
The next figure shows the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios used in the plots, as well the observed (1988 – 2008) plus future based on scenario B. The observed CO2 emissions is closest to the scenario B input, but the observed temperature is closer to scenario C output – indicating a problem with the models. (Figures from Steve McIntyre [http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3354] ).
The next figure shows a plot of Hansen’s predictions along with actual temperature data from various sources – GISS, HadCRU and NOAA (from: http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/ordinary-eyeball-how-did-hansens-predictions-do/ ).