Global Warming Science - www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming

California Climate Adaptation Strategy

[last update: 2010/09/22]

As part of the AB32, California is coping to adapt with imaginary threats.

[http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CNRA-1000-2009-027/CNRA-1000-2009-027-F-ES.PDF]

“Climate change is already affecting California.”

“The 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy (CAS) report summarizes the best known science on climate change impacts in the state to assess vulnerability”

Adapting to the imaginary.

Sea Level Rise Will Cost Billions

“Sea levels have risen by as much as seven inches along the California coast over the last century … a study by the Pacific Institute, shows coastal property at risk from projected sea level rise by county with replacement values as high as $24 billion in San Mateo County.”

The report shows the following figure based on 1.4 meters of sea level rise.

The following figure shows sea level trends at various locations in California (from NOAA: [http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/index.shtml]). The trends vary widely from a decreasing trend (-0.65 mm / year) in the north to 2 mm / year increase in the south. The rate of increase has slowed in recent years at locations that have an increasing trend.

The only place in California that approaches the purported seven inches over the last century is in the very southern part - most of the state has much less. But then the next century damage alarm is based on 1.4 meters of sea level rise – even though the rate of change in sea level rise has not changed in the last 100 years, they say it will increase by a factor of 10.

The following figure illustrates the “adaptation” imaginary scenario for the area of California with the highest sea level rise, showing the historical trend (left) for La Jolla, repeated for the next century (right + blue line) and the alarmist 1.4 meter rise indicated by the red line.

Temperature and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The following figure shows the average annual temperature anomalies for the average of the four 5x5 degree grids covering California for 1930 – 2009 (indicated in yellow on the map).

This 5x5 degree gridded data is from the Hadley/Climatic Research Unit (CRU) CRUTEM3 database (IPCC uses CRU data), plotted at: [http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climate.aspx]

The warmest year was 1934 - there has been no statistically significant warming over the last 80 years.

The west coast of the United States is highly influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The following figure shows the PDO through September 2009 [http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/]

The following figure superimposes the Hadley CRUTEM3 average California temperature data shown above (changed to green), on the PDO shown above. While CO2 continues to simply increase, the California temperature follows the trend in PDO, ignoring the influence of CO2.

Conclusion

No warming trend, imaginary sea level threats. The adaptation executive summary recommends: “Consider project alternatives that avoid significant new development in areas that cannot be adequately protected” and this seems to be the main thrust – extending government control to encourage what Obama’s “Science Czar” John Holdren calls “de-development” (“A massive campaign must be launched to restore a high-quality environment in North America and to de-develop the United States”  [http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-spokane/wh-science-czar-seeks-to-de-develop-the-united-states-using-free-market]).

For more info on California see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/RS_California.htm (Los Angeles has been cooling for 30 years).