Global Warming Science - www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming
Rwanda
[last update: 2010/09/20]
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The Alarm
[http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=35986&Cr=unep&Cr1=]
According to NASA Earth Observatory [http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=38644] “With an estimated population in excess of 9 million, Rwanda is mainland Africa’s most densely populated country, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Although protected areas in Rwanda increased slightly between 1990 and 2005, the large population puts intense pressure on the land.” Regarding the Gishwati Forest, the same article states: “the reserve’s forests were largely intact in 1978, and substantial forest cover still remained in 1986. But in the 15 years that elapsed between these images—a time that spanned the country’s tragic genocide—wave after wave of refugees arrived in Gishwati Forest and began clearing it, often for subsistence farming. By 2001, only a small circular patch of native forest remained—1,500 acres of the forest’s original 250,000. … Rwandan deforestation was driven by the need for food, medicine, charcoal, and timber, especially for commercial products. But the loss of so many trees in a rainy, mountainous country has had severe environmental consequences. In addition to tremendous loss of biodiversity, the region experiences soil erosion and degradation and landslides.”
Ravaged by climate change? As usual the U.N. blames anthropogenic global warming for what African people are doing to the environment.
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Rwanda Flooding
Flooding in Rwanda is common in association with the cycles of El Nino / La Nina. An International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (“East Africa: Preparedness for El Nino Floods” [http://www.ifrc.org/docs/appeals/09/MDR64006.pdf] states: the “El Nino effect which is associated with higher than normal rainfall in East Africa. Based on the experience of the last major El Nino (1997) this is expected to result in significant flooding in some parts of the region affecting the same communities whose health and livelihoods have been weakened by extreme drought.”
The following figures are from that report, showing the flood prone areas (left) and the expected winter rainfall last winter (Rwanda highlighted by the red circle).
The following information is from a report by the Stockholm Environment Institute “Economics of Climate Change in Rwanda” [http://www.rema.gov.rw/ccr/Final%20report.pdf]
“The potential impacts of such future [flood] events are also determined by socio-economic trends. A significant part of the recent trend of increased flood impacts can be attributed to the increase in population, including urbanisation, and increased value of assets in flood-prone areas. Other factors include changes in the terrestrial system, such as deforestation and loss of natural floodplain storage, as well as to changes in climate. Similarly, the trend in future impacts will also be determined by these socio-economic drivers as much as by any changes in future climate.”
“Intense rainfall and in some regions periodic droughts are already features of the Rwanda climate and certain to continue to be significant hazards (even without climate change).”
“Rwanda’s landscape is mainly hilly and steep and for this reason, erosion causes loss of fertile topsoil, rendering soils more and more unproductive and threatening the livelihood of 86% of Rwandans who live solely on agriculture.”
The following figure from the same report, shows modeled maize yield change 2000 to 2050 due to climate and land-use change (Rwanda located within red square). Positive effects are projected for Rwanda over the next few decades.
Regarding wildlife, the report states: “Due to its very small population level and a series of threats to their habitat, mountain gorillas face a high risk of extinction in the wild. The surrounding area is vulnerable due to livelihood pressures, agriculture and forest fragmentation, etc. At this time, the effects of climate change on montane forests in the region are not fully understood. … global models are not robust enough to project climate change at the spatial scale of this region. There is likely to be warming, though the level of warming for these specific areas cannot be projected. The forecasts of precipitation for the country as a whole are more uncertain: many models project higher average precipitation and potentially more extreme rainfall.”
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Rwanda Climate
Although Africa in general has a lack of historical climate data, Rwanda is in an area of Africa with almost no climate data. Neither the NOAA GHCN nor the Hadley CRU databases have temperature data for the area. The following map shows the 5x5 degree grids with Hadley CRUTEM3 data (left). The graph on the right shows the typical problems of lack of data, showing the two 5x5 grids south of Rwanda. (Graphs from http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climate.aspx)
There are only two precipitation stations in Rwanda in the NOAA GHCN database - although the data end in the early 1990s.
The following figure shows October/November/December precipitation anomalies (standard deviation based on 1961-1990 average) for the Rwanda / Burundi area. Vertical lines with dots are observed data. The gray bands show climate model simulations. This shows the very poor job that climate models do in simulating regional details. [http://www.knmi.nl/africa_scenarios/projected_changes_east_africa.pdf]
The following maps show the regions where the greatest impacts occur due to the shift in the jet stream as a result of the El Nino pattern. [http://www.srh.weather.gov/srh/jetstream/tropics/enso_impacts.htm]. The Rwanda area is highlighted by the red circle.
Above: El Nino effect December – February (left) and La Nina effect December – February (right).
The following figures show the composite short rainfall anomalies for La Nina years (left) and El Nino years (right). (From http://wikiadapt.org/images/2/2c/Fig1EA.jpg), corresponding to the generalized scenarios shown above.
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Gishwati Forest
According to the Rwanda Environment Management Authority: “Gishwati Forest Reserve in northwestern Rwanda is one of the most severely deforested areas in the country. Exploitation of the forests for commercial products such as charcoal, timber, medicine, and food has been the main driver of this deforestation.”
“The Gishwati Reserve has only about 9 km² or 900 ha (3.6 mi² or 2,224 acres) of natural forest remaining, with a chimpanzee population of 14 individuals. … Neither the forest nor the chimpanzee population is sustainable without immediate protection, and augmentation in the long run. Gishwati has a history of deforestation extending over the past 50 years, in part because of ill-advised large-scale cattle ranching schemes, resettlement of refugees after the genocide, inefficient small-plot farming, free-grazing of cattle, and the establishment of plantations of non-native trees. As a result, the area is plagued with catastrophic flooding, landslides, erosion, decreased soil fertility, decreased water quality, and heavy river siltation, all of which aggravate local poverty. ” [http://www.earthpark.net/programs/gishwati/history.php]
[http://www.illegal-logging.info/item_single.php?it_id=3792&it=news]
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The Audacity of Hope
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Conclusion
The United Nations started the global warming scare and they are continuing to promote it through distortions and lies.
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See also:
UN invented the global warming scare: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_History.htm
UN blames the west for Africa’s woes: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/Deforestation.htm
Former UN members run the GHF: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/HumanImpact.htm#forum
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