Southern United States

The following figure shows the Hadley Climatic Research Unit (HadCRU) temperature data for eight 5x5 degree grids covering most of the southern United States. The HadCRU gridded data is used by the IPCC. The individual temperature stations are adjusted and then averaged within each 5x5 degree grid.

The historical temperature trend for the four eastern 5x5 grids are similar to each other, but different that the four western grids. The following figure shows the same data for the four eastern grids (top graph) and the four western grids (bottom). The eastern half shows no unprecedented warming. The western – desert – half shows some warming.

The 5x5 degree grid showing the most warming is the 110 – 115 degrees longitude grid, encompassing most of Arizona. This grid is shown individually in the following figure.

The Hadley Climatic Research Unit obtains data from the NOAA Global Historical Climate Network for the United States. HadCRU includes stations that have data between 1961 – 1990, since that is the base period used for calculating temperature anomalies. Although HadCRU publish a list of stations used, they do not publish the actual station data, nor the adjustments made to the data. It is unfortunate that the IPCC uses data from an organization that refuses to publish the actual data – they only publish the adjusted, averaged data.

The following 10 stations are the only stations in the above 5x5 degree grid, that are used by HadCRU from the NOAA GHCN database, and that have data prior to 1930 as well as after 2000. Each station below shows the temperature data from the NOAA database along with a photo of the temperature station (where available) from the www.surfacestations.org photo database.

Most of the stations below that have photos, have improperly sited temperature stations (Holbrook, Miami, Wickenburg, Blythe). Tombstone and Yuma Citrus, which have better siting do not exhibit the warming that shows up in the grid average shown above.

Tombstone:

Childs:

No picture available showing station

Holbrook:

Miami:

Roosevelt:

Wickenburg:

Yuma Citrus:

Needles FAA AP:

No picture available showing station

Blythe:

Buckeye:

No picture available showing station

The only other rural long-term station in the NOAA database not utilized by HadCRU is Parker – shown below. Although not perfectly sited, it is much better than many on the stations used by HadCRU, but it does not show any warming since 1960.

Parker 6NE:

One would expect more warming due to CO2 to be exhibited in the western half of the southern US – since CO2 has little to no effect on temperatures in a high-humidity area, but more effect where the humidity is low as in the desert. However, it appears that most of the warming exhibited in the western US is due to improperly sited temperature stations.

Even though most of the southern US (as well as most of the rest of the US) shows no unprecedented warming, the alarmists are coming up with more bizarre warnings. In May 2008 the American Urological Association warned that global warming would cause increased kidney stones, based on the research by Pearle MS, Lotan Y, Brikowski T: “Predicted climate-related increase in the prevalence and cost of nephrolithiasis in the U.S.”, J Urol, suppl., 2008. Their press release [http://www.auanet.org/press/WebContent/WebView_News_Releases.asp?iRecordid=45&Area=MEETING%20%20kidney%20stones%20global%20warming] states: “Rising global temperatures could lead to an increase in kidney stones … researchers applied predictions of temperature increase to determine the impact of global warming on the incidence and cost of stone disease in the United States. … Dehydration has been linked to stone disease, particularly in warmer climates, and global warming will exacerbate this effect. … The southern United States is considered “the stone belt” because these states have higher incidences of kidney stones. Rising global temperatures could expand this region; the fraction of the U.S. population living in high-risk stone zones is predicted to grow from 40 percent in 2000 to 50 percent by 2050.”

This is rather bizarre considering that sources of information on kidney stone causes indicate otherwise. For example, the National Kidney and Urologic Diseases Information Clearinghouse (part of NIH) [http://kidney.niddk.nih.gov/kudiseases/pubs/stonesadults/index.htm#cause] states: “A person with a family history of kidney stones may be more likely to develop stones. … Other causes of kidney stones are hyperuricosuria, which is a disorder of uric acid metabolism; gout; excess intake of vitamin D; urinary tract infections; and blockage of the urinary tract. Certain diuretics, commonly called water pills, and calcium-based antacids may increase the risk of forming kidney stones by increasing the amount of calcium in the urine.” Other rare hereditary diseases are mentioned, but not dehydration. Another example, the Mayo Clinic [http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/kidney-stones/DS00282/DSECTION=3]: “Problems in the way your system absorbs and eliminates calcium and other substances create the conditions for kidney stones to form. Sometimes, the underlying cause is an inherited metabolic disorder or kidney disease. … It's common, however, for kidney stones to have no definite, single cause. … Roughly four out of five kidney stones are calcium stones, usually in the form of calcium oxalate. Oxalate is found in some fruits and vegetables, but the liver produces most of the body's oxalate supply. Dietary factors, high doses of vitamin D, intestinal bypass surgery and several different metabolic disorders can increase the concentration of calcium or oxalate in urine.” Dehydration is not mentioned.

In fact with their statement of “The southern United States is considered “the stone belt” because these states have higher incidences of kidney stones”, they forgot that it is actually the southeast US that has that reputation, according to the National Institutes of Health (NIH) [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8126805]. Given that the southeast US has exhibited no “global warming” as shown in the HadCRU data, the alarmist position is again without substance.